油价可能涨到每桶100美元吗？车载配件

据今日油价3月10日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在2月份的《短期能源展望》(Short Term Energy Outlook, STEO)中预测，2月的全球石油消费量为9670万桶/天。然而，石油供应要低得多，只有9360万桶/天，其中310万桶/天的供应来自原油和成品油库存。以历史标准衡量，300万桶/天的持续库存消耗是很大的，在这种情况下，预计油价将上涨。

EIA预计需求将继续以良好的速度复苏，直至2021年年二手叉车中。7月份全球石油消费预计为9820万桶/天(但仍比“正常”水平低约400万桶/天)。这一增长的需求由两个来源助推，一是巴西，二是欧佩克。市场可能会接受巴西原油产量增长的事实，可接受的时间也会推迟一两个月，关键的问题是欧佩克的产量供应决定。

EIA使用的是需求驱动模型，这意味着欧佩克将被动地增加产量以满足需求，从而保持油价在较低的水平。但欧佩克为什么要这么做呢?如果欧佩克仅仅维持目前的产量水平，到年中，全球石油供应将短缺350万桶/天。350万桶/天的缺口(占全球消费的3.6%)是很大的，将迅速消耗剩余的过剩库存，只剩下油价在供需之间进行调停，而此时，随着疫情的结束，全球经济正显示出强劲势头。换句话说，在未来几个月，消费者将准备好争夺现有的石油，这应该会推动油价大幅上涨。

这就是做出“油价将达到每桶制动室100美元”判断的原因。

这里有一些重要的注意事项。在许多情况下，运营商必须在知道石油确切价格之前就承诺生产原油。在这种情况下，欧佩克可以自行决定让油价上涨并增加产量。这使欧佩克对油价有了很大的控制和灵活性。当然，油价上涨更好，但如果欧佩克认为市场过热，可以在相当短的时间内增加更多的石油，这将鼓励欧佩克测试更高的价格水平。

很难知道什么时候供需将达到平衡。不过，现在是欧佩克在中短期内真正赚钱的最佳机会。如果让机会溜走，他们就是傻瓜。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

How Oil Could Go To $100 Per Barrel

In its February Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts this month's world oil consumption at 96.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). The oil supply, however, is much lower, only 93.6 mbpd, with the difference of 3.1 mbpd of necessity being drawn from crude oil and refined product inventories. By historical standards, a sustained draw of 3 mbpd is large, and we would expect prices to be rising under such circumstances.

The EIA sees demand continuing to recover at a good pace to mid-year, with July world oil consumption forecast at 98.2 mbpd (but still about 4 mbpd below 'normal'). This incremental demand is being materially supplied by two sources, Brazil and OPEC. We might accept Brazil's crude oil production growth as given, allowing tha钢片t the timing might be off by a month or two. The pivotal question is instead OPEC's intentions.

The EIA uses a volume (or demand) driven model, implying that OPEC will passively increase production to meet demand, and thereby keep oil prices low. But why would OPEC do this? If OPEC simply maintained current production levels, the world would be 3.5 mbpd short of supply by mid-year. A shortfall of 3.5 mbpd -- 3.6% of global consumption -- is a lot. It would rapidly drain remaining excess inventories, leaving only oil prices to mediate between supply and demand just as the world economy is showing both strength and momentum as the pandemic ends. In other words, in the coming months consumers will be prepared to compete for the available barrels of oil, and that should push oil prices up sharply.

That's the '$100 / barrel' thesis.

A few important notes and caveats. In many cases, operators must commit to producing barrels before they know what the price will be. In this case, OPEC can let prices rise and add barrels at its discretion. This provides OPEC a great deal of control and flexibility over oil prices. Certainly, higher oil prices are better, but more barrels can be added on fairly short notice if OPEC believes the market is overheating. This should encourage OPEC to test ever higher price levels.

It is hard to know where the balance comes out. Nevertheless, now is OPEC's best opportunity to make real money in the short to medium term. They would be fools to let the opportunity slip by.